EIGEN TGE and circulating supply concerns

The EIGEN token launched today, and it's been interesting to watch reactions on X. The token launched on Binance, Bybit, OKX, and a handful of other centralized exchanges. It’s also tradable on Uniswap.

EigenLayer pioneered the concept of restaking, seeding a new vertical in crypto. Competing EVM-based restaking protocols like Symbiotic are anticipated to launch soon, and LRTs have taken off in other ecosystems as well (MilkyWay for Celestia, Meridian for Movement).

It’s worth noting that EigenLayer is in third place on the TVL leaderboard with $11 billion, just behind Aave at $12 billion and Lido at $24 billion.

There’s been some chatter about EIGEN’s circulating supply and its potential impact on markets. Kairos Research has a great breakdown of supply dynamics.

• The FDV is currently worth around $7 billion. Given market conditions and the situation in the Middle East, that's an incredibly strong launch. The price has held up considerably well at around $4, which is a bullish sign for the project.
• EIGEN launched with a total supply of 1.67 billion tokens and a circulating supply of around 200 million (about 12%). The supply is based on two airdrops, but only 84% of the first airdrop and just 27% of the second airdrop have been claimed. That puts the real circulating supply at 114 million tokens.
• Many people (including myself) restaked their claimed EIGEN, accounting for around 73 million tokens. The unbonding period is seven days, reducing the immediate circulating supply.

After accounting for unclaimed airdrops and tokens locked in restaking, the circulating supply hovers at around 40 million EIGEN. The actual float is around 2.5%, compared to roughly 11% reported on Coingecko and Binance. The low float will likely drive a lot of volatility as the market enters price discovery.

I think EIGEN will do well in the long term. VC unlocks won’t start for another year. But there are wallets with some mega-whale-sized airdrops. If any of these sell or restake tokens, this could heavily influence the market due to the low float. I’m inclined to sell my airdrop for an opportunity to buy at $2-$3.